Beijing – The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6 pc to 1,104 mmt in 2009 after declining by -1.4 pc in 2008. This is an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009 which predicted a decrease of -14.1 pc. The improvement is largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand in China. With signs, from the beginning of the second half of 2009, of a recovery across the world now apparent, global steel demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 9.2 pc to 1,206 mmt which is a recovery to the level of 2008.

Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said: "The global recovery is stronger than we predicted in April. According to our current forecast, China will rebound 19 pc in 2009 and 5 pc in 2010. Emerging economies will slow down 17 pc in 2009, to grow 12 pc in 2010. Apparent steel use in developed economies, that contracted 34 pc in 2009, will rebound 15 pc in 2010. Therefore, worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will return to growth in 2010 but this is expected to be moderate. As before the financial crisis, the emerging economies, especially China, will be the critical factor in driving world steel demand in the near future.

Concluding, Daniel Novegil said: “While the state of the global economy has improved, uncertainties and concerns regarding the resilience of the recovery still remain with the possibility of any premature reduction in government stimulus actions. This uncertainty particularly exists for the Chinese economy in 2010, whose fast recovery in 2009 was largely enabled by such strong government stimulus policies".

China’s apparent steel use in 2009 is expected to increase by 18.8 pc to reach 526 mmt. China is expected to account for 47.7 pc of world steel apparent use and excluding China, potential world steel demand would have fallen by -24.4 pc.

India also remained relatively resilient to the global crisis and apparent steel use is expected to grow by 8.9 pc and 12.1 pc in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

The NAFTA region is expected to show a -35.8 pc decline in apparent steel use in 2009 and then a positive 17.1 pc growth in 2010. Apparent steel demand in the US is likely to fall by -38.7 pc to 60 mmt in 2009 after falling by -8.2 pc in 2008. It should recover to 72 mmt in 2010 with a growth rate of 18.8 pc.

The EU-27 economies were also severely affected by the crisis and the region’s apparent steel use is expected to fall by -32.6 pc in 2009 to 122 mmt. In 2010, the apparent steel use in the EU-27 is expected to grow by 12.4 pc.

For both NAFTA and EU-27, the level of apparent steel use that is expected in 2010 amounts to what was achieved back in 1991, demonstrating the severity of the impact of the crisis on the steel industry.

Japan will see its apparent steel use decline by -31.3 pc, which is expected to recover by 15.8 pc in 2010 to reach 61 mmt.

Apparent steel use in the CIS region is expected to contract by -30.8 pc in 2009 and should grow by only 8.2 pc in 2010.

The apparent steel use by country can be found and downloaded under worldsteel.org.

Quelle: World Steel Association (worldsteel)

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