Vienna – The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its short range outlook for 2010 and 2011. worldsteel forecasts that apparent steel use will increase by 10.7 percent to 1,241 mmt in 2010 after contracting by -6.7 percent in 2009. This represents an improved figure over the Autumn 2009 forecast for both 2009 and 2010. With these projections, world steel demand in 2010 will exceed pre-crisis levels of 2007.

In 2011, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow by 5.3 percent to reach a historical high of 1,306 mmt. The resilience of the emerging economies, especially China, has been the critical factor enabling the earlier than expected recovery of world steel demand.

The worldsteel Economics Committee met in Beijing in March 2010 and its deliberations took place before the impact of the increase in raw material prices could be fully considered. The risk of increased volatility of raw material prices remains a major concern to the steel industry and its customers.

Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said, “The general picture is an improvement on the forecast we issued in October last year. The world steel industry now seems firmly set on a path to recovery. The emerging economies, who in total maintained positive growth through the crisis, will continue to show strong growth, driving world steel demand in the future, however the current recovery in the major developed economies is slower and the projected steel demand for them in 2011 is well below the 2007 level.”

“The recovery is not only earlier but also stronger than expected. It was driven in large part by government stimulus packages and recent inventory restocking. The real concern will be how post-crisis macroeconomic policies deal with fiscal balancing and inflationary pressures.” Daniel Novegil concluded.

China’s apparent steel use in 2010 is expected to increase by 6.7 percent to 579 mmt after the impressive increase of 24.8 percent in 2009. The pace of economic growth and steel production seen in the 1st quarter of 2010 suggests that apparent steel use could be even higher than this forecast. In 2011, the growth rate will slow to 2.8 percent, which will bring China’s apparent steel use to 595 mmt. In 2011, China will account for 45.5 percent of world apparent steel use, compared to 48.4 percent in 2009.

India’s steel demand maintained stable growth during the crisis and is expected to grow by 13.9 percent and 13.7 percent in 2010 and 2011 respectively, after 7.7 percent in 2009. In 2011, India’s apparent steel use will reach 71.6 mmt.

In the NAFTA region, apparent steel use in the US fell by -41.6 percent in 2009 and recorded 57.4 mmt. With the recovery in the US economy and stock rebuilding, apparent steel use is expected to grow by 26.5 percent in 2010 and then 7.5 percent to 78.1 mmt in 2011, bringing its apparent steel use back to the level of 1991. For NAFTA, the level of apparent steel use that is expected in 2011 is similar to that of 1993.

The EU economies have seen a fall in apparent steel use of -35.2 percent in 2009 with Spain and Italy hardest hit by the collapse of their construction sectors. In 2010, the region will see an increase of 13.7 percent in steel demand due to inventory rebuilding and a slight increase in real steel use. In 2011, real demand will drive the recovery and apparent steel use is expected to grow by 7.9 percent to reach 145.2 mmt, bringing it back to the level of 1997.

Japan, which experienced a fall in apparent steel use of -31.7 percent in 2009, will see its steel use increase by 10.3 percent in 2010, but in 2011, its steel demand is expected to stagnate with -0.2 percent growth due to weakening of its major steel using sectors. This brings Japan’s apparent steel use in 2011 to 58.6 mmt, the level achieved in 1983.

The CIS region was another major victim of the economic crisis due to its heavy dependence on oil revenue and foreign capital. Apparent steel use in the region fell -28.2 percent in 2009 with a fall of -41.9 percent in Ukraine. In 2010, apparent steel use in the CIS region will grow by 11 percent and then by 8 percent in 2011.

Turkey, which experienced a -9.4 percent decline in apparent steel use in 2009, will see an increase of above 13 percent in 2009 and 2010.

The MENA region continued to record positive growth in steel use in 2009 despite significant falls in UAE and Saudi Arabia. The region’s better than average performance, despite the decline in the oil price, is attributable to the strength of Egypt and Iran. The region will maintain relatively resilient growth in 2010 and 2011 with apparent steel use reaching 68.2 mmt in 2011.

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world. worldsteel represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 19 of the world's 20 largest steel companies), national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes. worldsteel members produce around 85 percent of the world's steel.

Data by country can be downloaded under blisscommunication.be.

Quelle: worldsteel

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