Lisbon, Portugal -- According to ICSG data, global growth in copper demand for 2011 is expected to exceed global growth in copper production and the annual production deficit, estimated at about 250,000 metric tons (t) of refined copper in 2010, is expected to be about 380,000 t in 2011. In response to prevailing high copper prices and increased end use demand, production increases are expected at operations curtailed following the 2008 economic crisis and, to a lesser extent, from startup of new operations.

Industrial demand in 2011 in all of the major consuming regions is expected to continue the upward trend begun in 2010 and exceed the growth in refined production. Following a year of extraordinary growth (38 percent) in 2009, China´s apparent consumption in 2010 grew by only 4.3 percent and accounted for more than 38 percent of global copper demand. In 2011, the growth rate is projected to be around 6 percent: An anticipated growth in semifabricate production and possible restocking of working inventories could be partially offset by greater reliance on direct melt scrap and potential drawdown of unreported inventories that likely accumulated in preceding years.

The Study Group recognized that numerous factors including the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, political disturbances in the Middle East and North Africa, changes in trade and monetary policies, and uncertain copper market off-take in the China-dominated Asian market create uncertainty, and that the global market deficit could vary from the projected figure.

Project projections taken together indicate that mine production in 2011 will increase by about 740,000 t (4.6 percent); however, it is expected that the actual increase will be significantly lower as production disruptions from project delays, technical problems and labor and political unrest that have become the norm in recent years are expected to continue to reduce output. World refined copper production for 2011 (adjusted for production disruptions) is therefore projected to increase by only about 3.5 percent to 19.7 million tons (Mt). In 2012, it is anticipated that refined production will increase by about 5 percent following continued ramp-up of projects.

ICSG expects world apparent refined usage in 2011 to increase by 4 percent from that in 2010 to more than 20 Mt. In 2012, refined usage is again expected to increase in all major world markets, with global demand expected to rise by more than 4 percent. In 2012, the production deficit is expected to narrow as refined copper production is expected to grow faster than demand.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) met in Lisbon, Portugal on 14-15 April 2011. Government delegates and industry advisors from most of the world’s leading copper producing and using countries met to discuss key issues affecting the global copper market. In its meeting of the Statistical Committee, the ICSG view of the world balance of refined copper production and use was developed.

Quelle: International Copper Study Group (ICSG)

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